Research on the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and food security in Kenya indicates that the country could emerge as a leader in adapting to rising temperatures. According to Kenya’s National Climate Change Action Plan (2013-2017), the nation is highly vulnerable to climate fluctuations, outlining a roadmap for climate adaptation. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) reported that from April to September 2014, despite forecasts of “near-normal to below-normal” long rains between March and May, the rains were sporadic, unevenly distributed, and particularly scarce in arid and semi-arid regions. FEWS NET also estimated that food security would decline between July and September due to rising maize prices driven by supply shortages. In Baringo County, MP William Cheptumo urged the government to “implement measures to address the looming food shortage,” warning that thousands of residents were facing hunger. Agriculture accounts for 75% of Kenya’s workforce, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). The National Climate Change Action Plan highlighted that the “uncertainty accompanying climate change affects development choices and livelihoods,” imposing a financial burden on the nation’s resources. The government has already allocated KSh 600 million ($6.8 million) in emergency funds for drought-affected areas, according to government official John Konchellah.
Opportunities and Adaptation Strategies
Experts believe that opportunities exist to mitigate the impact of climate change, but governmental systems need to be mobilized to work effectively and communicate with farmers. Evans Kitui, a climate change program specialist at the International Development Research Centre (part of Canada’s foreign aid program), emphasized in a phone interview with IRIN News that “policymakers at both national and county levels need to act quickly to seize the opportunity, while those expected to suffer must revise their policies and strategies to accommodate the imminent reality.” Michael Waithaka, co-author of the report and head of the Policy Advocacy Program at the Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa, suggested that “one option could be to assist farmers in migrating to new areas more suitable for maize cultivation. Another option is to help farmers find better crops to grow in their current areas.” Providing crucial climate information to farmers is also essential. In pastoralist communities, where livestock perished during droughts, the government offers guidance on grazing systems and livestock diversification. Farmers maintain low stocks and draw on insurance to cushion the impact of shocks. James Kinyangi, head of the Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security Research Programs in East Africa, noted that “such policies should ensure access to microcredit facilities, with safety net mechanisms in place to protect agriculture from the adverse effects of climate change.”
Innovations and Long-Term Solutions
While researchers have developed innovations such as drought-resistant crops to assist farmers, experts stress the importance of continuous innovation. Kitui remarked that “producing drought-resistant crops is feasible and must be strengthened. However, even if we find a solution today, it may not be sustainable for the next 100 years. Researchers need to constantly develop solutions to address both future and current challenges.” Governments in the region have also established “climate-smart villages” with support from the Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security Research Programs in East Africa. These villages were first established in Kenya in 2011 in the Nyando Basin region, introducing fast-growing goat and sheep breeds, disease-resistant chickens, and improved cassava resistant to the deadly virus. Speaking to IRIN News, Kinyangi emphasized that “with international negotiations on mitigating climate change through greenhouse gas emission reductions stalled, Kenya’s leadership in adaptation planning is particularly significant.”
However, analysts warn that not enough has been done to address climate change proactively. The World Bank’s June 2013 report, Turn Down the Heat, cautioned that a global temperature increase of 4°C would threaten food security and economic growth across Africa. By 2080, annual rainfall could decrease by 30% in Southern Africa, while East Africa could experience more rainfall. Drought and desertification across Africa could cause farmers to lose 40-80% of their maize, millet, and sorghum-growing areas by 2040. Kitui noted that “many countries, including Kenya, remain reactive, with institutions waiting for disaster to strike before taking action and often resorting to tried-and-true solutions. The country has faced repeated tragedies like floods, severe droughts, and hunger over the years, but no permanent solutions have been established.” He added that “policymakers need to use regular early warnings and well-documented research findings from Kenya’s meteorological departments to address these conditions proactively.
